Market Update: Soft PPI Fuels Risk-On Tone — July 15, 2026
By Nummius · July 15, 2026
A cooler-than-expected PPI print gave equity bulls a green light on Wednesday, pushing SPY to $754.81 (+0.40%) and holding it well above its 20-day moving average — though QQQ slipped to $717.74 (-0.27%), underperforming as tech continues to lag the broader market. The VIX fell another 3.8% to 16.5, confirming that fear is fading and active managers remain heavily positioned, with NAAIM exposure at a robust 84.69.
⚡ Sector Rotation
Communication Services (XLC) led decisively at +1.73% and sits 4% above its 20-day MA, while Financials (XLF) maintains top RRG ranking — a combination that signals growth-oriented, rate-sensitive confidence rather than defensive rotation. Industrials and Materials both dipped into the red and remain below their 20-day averages, suggesting cyclical momentum is narrowing. Track the evolving sector picture with Nummius Intermarket Analysis for a real-time read on relative strength.
🌐 Intermarket
Oil is the standout, up 16% over four weeks and now sitting 11% above its 20-day MA — a supply-driven surge that introduces a stagflation wildcard even as today’s PPI data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics came in below forecast at -0.3% month-over-month. Gold is flat on the day and slipping below its 20-day MA, consistent with a -0.57 correlation to the dollar suggesting USD resilience is capping the metal. Long bonds (TLT) edged up slightly but remain 1.67% below their 20-day MA — use the Nummius Watchlist & Stock Screener to flag energy and financial names benefiting from this cross-asset backdrop.
📅 What to Watch
- Bank of Canada Rate Statement & MPR (8:45am ET): With oil spiking and inflation dynamics shifting, the BOC decision carries outsized macro significance for commodity-linked currencies and cross-border equity flows.
- Core PPI m/m (USD, released today): Came in at +0.2% vs. +0.3% forecast — the softer read is supportive of Fed patience, but the -0.3% headline PPI warrants watching for demand-side weakness signals in coming weeks.
- Oil trajectory: WTI at $121.38 is the biggest unresolved risk — sustained energy inflation could reignite producer price pressures and complicate the soft-landing narrative heading into the next CPI print.
This analysis is AI-generated based on market data provided by the Nummius platform and is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.