Market Snapshot: Tech Roars Into Q3 as Jobs Data Disappoints — July 1, 2026

By Nummius · July 01, 2026

Markets kicked off Q3 with a powerful tech-led rally, sending SPY to $746.77 (+5.77% on the month) and QQQ to $736.40 (+12.32%), even as a soft ADP print and cooling eurozone inflation complicated the macro picture. The VIX collapsed 6.8% to 16.45, signaling a decisive shift in near-term sentiment, while active managers are all-in — NAAIM exposure hit a lofty 98.59, leaving little dry powder for further buying.

⚡ Sector Rotation

Tech’s +5.11% single-day surge dominated the tape, but the RRG tells a more nuanced story — XLK is already flashing “weakening” on relative strength momentum, meaning today’s pop may be more of a catch-up trade than the start of sustained leadership. Defensives like XLV, XLI, and XLF continue to hold the “leading” quadrant with strong RS ratios, suggesting institutional money hasn’t fully rotated back into growth. Track evolving leadership across all eleven sectors in real time with the Nummius Sector Rotation Dashboard.

🌐 Intermarket

Gold’s sharp -4.84% four-week slide — sitting 4.82% below its 20-day SMA with a -0.87 correlation to the dollar — signals a meaningful risk-on rotation out of safe havens, while crude oil’s -7.34% four-week decline removes a key inflation floor. ADP’s 98K print (well below the 118K forecast) raised fresh labor market concerns ahead of Friday’s official jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics — bonds dipped anyway as equities stole the flow, with TLT slipping -1.03% on the day. Use the Nummius Watchlist & Stock Screener to flag names best positioned if rate expectations shift after Friday’s NFP.

📅 What to Watch

• Friday NFP (BLS): With ADP printing 98K vs. 118K expected, a sub-100K nonfarm payrolls number could reignite rate-cut bets and pivot bond sentiment quickly.
• Eurozone CPI (Today): Core CPI came in at 2.4% vs. 2.5% forecast — the ECB’s disinflationary trend is accelerating, which may pressure the EUR and indirectly support U.S. equity multiples.
• BOC Governor Macklem (8:00am): Any dovish tilt from Canada could add to the broader G7 central bank easing narrative forming this week.

This analysis is AI-generated based on market data provided by the Nummius platform and is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.